Ukraine has been invaded by Russia.
How did it happen and when?
Putin announced at 3 am (GMT) this morning, in a speech (over which there is some doubt as to whether it was live or pre-recorded) that following requests for help from the separatist areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, he had sent troops into Ukraine to “demilitarise” and “denazify” Ukraine and “protect” the people of the Donbas region. The attacks then began.
Surreally, this invasion happened while an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council – a meeting convened at Ukraine’s request – was actually in session. As the Guardian says, reporting from the meeting in Washington: “Vladimir Putin, with brutal timing, delivered a speech announcing that Russia would start a “special military operation” in Ukraine – while an emergency session of the UN security council was under way. The secretary general, Antonio Guterres, was the first to speak, and at that time Putin’s intentions were not entirely clear. But Guterres pointed to the reports of troops moving into position, and did something notable and rare for a UN secretary general: he publicly called out the head of a security council permanent member.
“If indeed an operation is being prepared, I have only one thing to say, from the bottom of my heart,” Guterres said. “President Putin: stop your troops from attacking Ukraine. Give peace a chance. Too many people have already died.”
By the time it was the turn of the Russian representative, Vasily Nebenzya, to speak, Putin had given his address, and there was no more mystery. Peace was not to be given a chance after all. Nebenzya, who had spent weeks deriding western states for their “hysterical” warnings of impending invasion, pivoted to argue it was not actually a war that was getting under way, but a “special military operation” to protect the people of the Donbass.”
The Ukrainian ambassador, Sergiy Kyslytsya, had been waiting for his turn to speak while receiving constant updates from Kyiv. When his time came, he had to dispense with his prepared speech because, he said, “most of it is already useless”. Instead he held up a copy of the UN charter and read the clause that said UN membership was open to all peace-loving states that accepted the obligations contained in the small sky-blue booklet.
“Russia is not able to carry out any of those obligations,” Kyslytsya declared. He challenged Nebenzya to deny that Ukraine was under attack.“You have a smartphone,” he said, taunting the Russian to check with his boss, the foreign minister, on what was really going on. “You can call Lavrov right now. We can make a pause to let you go out and call him.”
Nebenzya declined. “I have already said all I know at this point,” he said. “Waking up minister Lavrov at this time is not something I plan to do.” An hour or so into the meeting, the multiplying reports of bombardment of Ukrainian cities had reached the chamber, and if the futility of the council’s calls for peace and dialogue had not been clear before, they were now agonisingly obvious. Some ambassadors demanded to speak for a second time to express their sense of betrayal.
“At the exact time as we were gathered in the council seeking peace, Putin delivered a message of war in total disdain for the responsibility of this council,” said the US permanent representative, Linda Thomas-Greenfield. “This is a grave emergency.” Her British counterpart, Barbara Woodward, declared it “a grave day for Ukraine and for the principles of the United Nations”. Kyslytsya himself was trembling with emotion. He stared at Nebenzya and demanded the Russian relinquish his duties as chair of the council. “There is no purgatory for war criminals,” he warned him. “They go straight to hell.” At that point, Nebenzya quickly closed the meeting, claiming that Russia’s aggression was not directed at the Ukrainian people, but against what he called “the junta that is in power in Kiev”. Then he adjourned and left. A security council that had begun, just about, in peacetime, had broken up in a time of war, and perhaps at the start of a major conflict.
What has happened so far?
The Guardian again, since it is certainly producing the best journalism so far on the issue:
“According to Ukrainian officials, the initial wave of strikes appeared to involve cruise missiles, artillery and airstrikes which struck military infrastructure and border positions, including airbases. Three hours into the attack the Russian defence ministry was claiming to have “neutralised” Ukraine’s airbases and air defences. Although most of the airstrikes were concentrated to the east, strikes were also reported in the west of Ukraine including in Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk.
Ukrainian officials from the border guard service and elsewhere were also reporting an armoured incursion from Belarus through the Senkivka border crossing in the north of the country backed by Belarussian troops. There were also reports of Russian troops crossing the border to the east of Kharkiv and Russian armour moving into Ukraine from the Crimea suggesting a three-pronged attack from north, south and east, with Reuters carrying video of Russian tanks in Mariupol. However earlier reports of an amphibious landing in Odessa were denied by some Ukrainian officials.
At around 7am local time (5am GMT) – two hours into the assault – Russian-backed separatist rebels were reported to be attacking Ukrainian positions around the self-styled break away republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. Explosions were heard in cities including Odessa, Mariupol, Kharkiv, Dnipro and the capital Kyiv. The full scope of the Russian military operation was not immediately clear but Putin said: “Our plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything by force.”
However Putin and Russian officials have also repeatedly denied planning a military assault on Ukraine.
What did Putin say?
In a bid to justify the attack, Putin claimed “A hostile anti-Russia is being created on our historic lands. We have taken the decision to conduct a special military operation,” he said, in what amounted to a declaration of war. He claimed it was for the “demilitarisation and denazification” of Ukraine, echoing a theme of Kremlin propaganda, the false claim that the Kyiv government is controlled by the far right. “We do not intend to occupy Ukraine,” he said, and he had a chilling warning for other nations. “To anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history. All relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me,” he said.
This indicates to me that, since it would be hard for ground or air offensives against many countries will happen at once, that he will use cyber warfare to interfere with country-critical infrastructure.
Is this purely an operation against military targets?
Evidence suggests not: (Guardian)”Video footage indicates that Russian rockets have hit population centres in major Ukrainian cities despite claims by the Russian military that it is only targeting military infrastructure. Images from the city of Kharkiv showed what appeared to be the tail section of a rocket fired from a Smerch heavy multiple rocket launcher. The rocket’s payload failed to explode on impact and it was left sticking out of the pavement in the city close to an Orthodox church. CIT, an open-source research group, confirmed that the video was shot in Kharkiv and that the tali section resembled a Smerch rocket. The use of those rockets against population centres is a “war crime,” the group claims.
CIT(@CITeam_ru)Мы проверили: видео действительно снято в Харькове, виден хвост ракетной части реактивного снаряда РСЗО «Смерч».Ракетная система залпового огня (РСЗО) — неизбирательное оружие. Удары по населённым пунктам с применением такого оружия — военное преступление
February 24, 2022Rob Lee, a former marine and senior researcher at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said it was unlikely that the rocket would be a precision-guided munition, calling it an “ominous sign”.
Rob Lee(@RALee85)
An important thing to note: this rocket is almost certainly not a precision-guided munition (PGM). That likely means Russia is already launching non-PGMs into cities. An ominous sign.
https://t.co/jYPbiL2EZXFebruary 24, 2022.
This does not look like a military against military operation. It looks like what it is: war. A massive wave of cyber attacks has also hit Ukraine, in the type of hybrid war that is typical of today’s conflicts. Mobile phone coverage and telecommunications have been lost from some areas.
What now?
Sanctions from nations opposed to Russia will increase: whether this will stop Putin is uncertain. Ukraine is defending itself and will receive more help from aligned nations. China has taken an anti-US stance, claiming that “successive waves of NATO expansion” have forced Russia to defend “its historic territory” and claiming, with obvious reference to the situation in Taiwan, that “this is what happens when you push a big country to the wall.” Although an immediate attack on Taiwan has not been predicted, it could happen.
Could this conflict spread?
Any conflict can always spread. Speculation at this juncture is pointless, and a waste of energy. Our empathy should be with the people who have been dragged into this conflict and who are under attack now.
“Ukrainian flags” by www.tOrange.biz is marked with CC BY 2.0.