Kyiv: the attack is massing, but Zelenskiy remains optimistic.
Reuters reports that fighting raged northwest of Kyiv, with Russian ground forces massing 25 kms (15 miles) from the centre of Ukraine’s capital, President Zelenskiy said Ukraine had reached a “strategic turning point”.
With the Russian assault in its third week, Zelenskiy, who has rallied his people with a series of addresses from the capital Kyiv, said Ukraine had “already reached a strategic turning point”.
“It is impossible to say how many days we still have (ahead of us) to free Ukrainian land. But we can say we will do it,” he said. “We are already moving towards our goal, our victory.”
Russia’s main force has been stalled north of Kyiv, having failed in what Western analysts say was an initial plan for a lightning assault, but Britain’s defence ministry said Russia appeared to be gearing up for a new offensive in coming days that would probably include Kyiv. Images taken on Friday and released by private U.S. satellite firm Maxar showed Russian forces were continuing to deploy closer to Kyiv and firing artillery toward residential areas, according to the company’s analysis. Multiple homes and buildings were on fire and widespread damage was seen throughout the town of Moschun, northwest of Kyiv, Maxar said. Reuters could not independently verify the images. Britain’s intelligence update said Russian ground forces were still making only limited progress, hampered by logistical problems and Ukrainian resistance.
Images released by Maxar also showed armoured units manoeuvring in and through towns close to an airport at Hostomel on Kyiv’s northwest outskirts, site of intense fighting since Russia landed paratroops there in the first hours of the war. Other elements had repositioned near the small settlement of Lubyanka just to the north, with towed artillery howitzers in firing positions, Maxar said.
“Russia is likely seeking to reset and re-posture its forces for renewed offensive activity in the coming days,” Britain’s Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update. “This will probably include operations against the capital Kyiv.”
The Ukrainian general staff said Russian forces were regrouping after taking heavy losses. Ukrainian troops had pushed some back to “unfavourable positions” near the Belarus border, it said.
Kyiv’s mayor, former heavyweight boxing champion Vitali Klitschko, said the capital had enough essential supplies to last a couple of weeks. Supply lines remained open. Latest news is that local media in Ukraine report that two oil depots near Kyiv are on fire after Russian attacks.
One depot was hit in the town of Vasylkiv, 36 kilometres south of the capital, and another was hit in the village of Kryachky, according to the Kyiv Independent. Vasylkiv is also home to a large airbase and has become a major Russian target.
Belarus: will it enter the war? What is a “false flag” operation?
At a meeting with Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko, Putin said there were “certain positive shifts” in talks with Kyiv, but did not elaborate. Meanwhile, Ukraine has raised the prospect of Moscow’s ally Belarus entering the war, accusing Russia of staging “false flag” air attacks on Belarus from Ukraine to provide an excuse. Belarus has served as a staging post for Russian forces before and after the invasion. Putin and Lukashenko agreed Moscow would supply its smaller neighbour with up-to-date military equipment, the official Belarus Belta news agency said.
Belarus is Russia’s close ally: it is important in this context, however, to remember that Lukashenko runs an exceptionally repressive regime (which is held up by Russia, basically) and “Belarus” is not “Belarusians, many of whom hate the dictator, his regime, and his links with Russia: in fact Belarusians have created a separate battalion named after Kastus Kalinouski to defend Kyiv. According to them, more than 200 Belarusians have joined the territorial defense of Ukraine, another 300 intend to go to Ukraine.
A false flag operation is where Country A aiming to invade Country B stages an attack inside Country A purporting to come from Country B to provide a pretext for Country A invading Country B on the grounds that Country B attacked Country A first, thus making Country A’s war defensive, not offensive. A classic example is the one below.
Prior to the 1939 invasion, German newspapers and politicians like Adolf Hitler carried out a national and international propaganda campaign accusing Polish authorities of organizing or tolerating violent ethnic cleansing of ethnic Germans living in Poland. Germany then implemented Operation Himmler.
Also called Operation Konserve or Operation Canned Goods, this operation consisted of a group of 1939 false-flag undertakings planned by Nazi Germany to give the appearance of Polish aggression against Germany. The Germans then used propaganda reports of the events to justify their invasion of Poland, which started on 1 September 1939. Operation Himmler included the Germans staging false attacks on themselves – directed at innocent people or at concentration-camp prisoners. The operation arguably became the first act of the Second World War in Europe.
The plan, named after its originator, Heinrich Himmler was supervised by Reinhard Heydrich and managed by Heinrich Müller.The goal of this false flag project was to create the appearance of Polish aggression against Germany, which could be used to justify the German invasion of Poland. Hitler also might have hoped to confuse Poland’s allies, the United Kingdom and France, into delaying or stopping their declaration of war on Germany
Is this happening in Ukraine/Belarus?
Yesterday, reports said that Russian aircraft launched an air strike on the settlement of Kopani in Belarus from Ukrainian airspace. The Ukrainian Interior Ministry said on Telegram that Su attack aircraft flew into Ukrainian airspace from Belarus, bombed Ukrainian territory and then launched air strikes on Belarusian territory.
The Command of the Ukrainian Air Force reported In addition to Kopani, Russian aircraft attacked two more settlements in Belarus.
“There is information about the shelling of Bukhlichi and Verkhnii Terebezhov (the Republic of Belarus),” the statement said.
No updates on that this morning: watch this space.
Mariupol and Kharkhiv
The Guardian reports that several humanitarian corridors in Ukraine, including from the besieged southern port city of Mariupol, will be open today for civilians to evacuate, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Iryna Vereshchuk said.
In a video address, Vereshchuk said Ukraine plans to evacuate residents of several towns and villages in the regions of Kyiv and Sumy and some other areas where there is ongoing combat.
It follows repeated failed attempts this week to allow a humanitarian convoy to reach Mariupol, where civilians remain trapped without power or mobile phone network, and water and food are running out.
Vereshchuk said today: “I hope that the day will go well, all the planned routes will be open and Russia will fulfil its obligations to guarantee the ceasefire regime.”
Earlier, Vadym Denysenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs, said on state television that humanitarian corridors in Ukraine could open on Saturday. At least 1,582 civilians in Mariupol have been killed as a result of Russian shelling and a 12-day blockade, the city council said in an online statement on Friday. The city has not been able to bury its dead and is running out of water. There is no food, heat, or power. The Guardian has not been able to verify casualty figures.
Moscow denies targeting civilians. Russia’s defence ministry said the Black Sea port was surrounded, while Ukrainian officials accused Russia of deliberately preventing civilians getting out and humanitarian convoys getting in.
In Kharkhiv, total of 48 schools have been destroyed, its mayor has said, as the city comes under relentless bombardment. “As of today, 48 (of the city’s) schools have been destroyed,” said mayor Ihor Terekhov in a televised address.
The regional governor of Kharkiv has also condemned an attack on a psychiatric hospital, saying it was “a war crime against civilians”. Ukraine has accused Russian forces of hitting a psychiatric hospital near the eastern Ukrainian town of Izyum.
Russian forces shelled residential areas of Kharkiv 89 times in one day, the local governor has said. Reuters reports that Oleh Synegubov also said there is no danger to civilians after an institute with a nuclear laboratory was hit.
The biohazards/bioweapons issue:
According to Reuters, earlier this week, the World Health Organization advised Ukraine to destroy high-threat pathogens housed in the country’s public health laboratories to prevent “any potential spills” that would spread disease among the population, the agency told Reuters on Thursday. Biosecurity experts say Russia’s movement of troops into Ukraine and bombardment of its cities have raised the risk of an escape of disease-causing pathogens, should any of those facilities be damaged.
Like many other countries, Ukraine has public health laboratories researching how to mitigate the threats of dangerous diseases affecting both animals and humans including, most recently, COVID-19. Its labs have received support from the United States, the European Union and the WHO.
In response to questions from Reuters about its work with Ukraine ahead of and during Russia’s invasion, the WHO said in an email that it has collaborated with Ukrainian public health labs for several years to promote security practices that help prevent “accidental or deliberate release of pathogens.”
“As part of this work, WHO has strongly recommended to the Ministry of Health in Ukraine and other responsible bodies to destroy high-threat pathogens to prevent any potential spills,” the WHO, a United Nations agency, said.
The WHO would not say when it had made the recommendation nor did it provide specifics about the kinds of pathogens or toxins housed in Ukraine’s laboratories. The agency also did not answer questions about whether its recommendations were followed. Ukrainian officials in Kyiv and at their embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for comment.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s laboratory capabilities are at the center of a growing information war since Russia began moving troops into Ukraine two weeks ago. On Wednesday, Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova repeated a longstanding claim that the United States operates a biowarfare lab in Ukraine, an accusation that has been repeatedly denied by Washington and Kyiv.
Zakharova said that documents unearthed by Russian forces in Ukraine showed “an emergency attempt to erase evidence of military biological programmes” by destroying lab samples. Reuters was unable to independently confirm her information.
In response, a Ukrainian presidential spokesperson said: “Ukraine strictly denies any such allegation.” U.S. government spokespeople also strongly denied Zakharova’s accusations, saying that Russia may use its claims as a pretext to deploy its own chemical or biological weapons.
The WHO statement made no reference to biowarfare. The agency said it encourages all parties to cooperate in “the safe and secure disposal of any pathogens they come across, and to reach out for technical assistance as needed.” It offered to help wherever possible with technical guidance and coordination.
The United Nations Security Council convened on Friday at Russia’s request, diplomats said, to discuss Moscow’s claims, presented without evidence, of U.S. biological activities in Ukraine.
What happened?
Britain’s Ambassador to the UK – a sad reminder of the time when we had decent representation, although to be fair, our FCDO representation is still intelligent, it’s just our politicians who are ignorant, made this speech, which encapsulates the opinion of the UNSC:
Statement by Ambassador Barbara Woodward at the UN Security Council Meeting on Ukraine (verbatim transcript).
Ambassador Barbara Woodward
Thank you Mr President,
Russia has today brought into the Security Council a series of wild, completely baseless and irresponsible conspiracy theories.
Let me put it diplomatically: they are utter nonsense.
There is not a shred of credible evidence that Ukraine has a biological weapons programme. Ukraine is a State Party to the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) in good standing. As we’ve heard, the research facilities are established facilities set up to deal with public health hazards.
The UN briefers today have confirmed this.
This is yet another lie in Russia’s disinformation campaign.
They said they would not invade Ukraine. They then invaded. Foreign Minister Lavrov then said they hadn’t invaded, and he repeated this absurdity yesterday.
A whole pack of lies.
They said Ukraine was preparing a “dirty bomb”.
That was a lie too.
They said yesterday that a pregnant woman staged her injuries in the Mariupol hospital bombing.
That was a grotesque lie.
Russia is sinking to new depths today, but this Council must not get dragged down with it.
So let’s get back to the facts.
Russia is invading Ukraine in violation of international law.
Russia is killing hundreds of civilians through indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian cities.
It is using cluster munitions and thermobaric rockets, weapons designed to inflict maximum damage wherever they are deployed.
It is targeting hospitals and schools and committing war crimes.
Thousands of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers are dead. Deaths that will shatter the lives of families they have left behind.
2.5 million Ukrainians have become refugees. One million children forced to flee from President Putin’s invasion.
This is a war of choice that Russia needs to end.
Colleagues,
Russia has broken its commitments under the Charter but we must not let it subvert the multilateral system itself.
As the UN said today, Russia is now putting at threat the global framework for peace and security. The Security Council is responsible for addressing many serious conflicts around the world. We have important work to do.
We do not sit in this Chamber to be an audience for Russia’s domestic propaganda.
And we should not allow Russia to abuse its permanent seat to spread disinformation and lies and pervert the purpose of the Security Council.
Let us resolve today that this Council remains focussed on the real threats to international peace and security.”
So that was that. The speech received almost (not from Russia, obviously) universal acclaim, and sets out the position very clearly.
What is the EU doing?
The EU will double the amount it is spending on providing military support to Ukraine to €1billion, it has been announced at a leaders’ summit on Versailles. The EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said agreement among the 27 leaders had not been difficult to secure. (Britain was, of course, not at the table. Britain is on its own.)
Lithuania’s president Gitanas Nausėda said there was a “flavour of disappointment” to the decision by the EU leaders at a summit in Versailles not to offer Ukraine a fast track to EU candidate status in their response to Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s request.
A useful Guardian opinion piece on how the war is going.
It’s two weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Moscow’s apparent plan to quickly seize key cities has failed. But there is little sign that anybody around Russian president Vladimir Putin might be able to stop the war, or that elites might remove him from power, writes Pjotr Sauer. Earlier this week, Russia’s defence ministry acknowledged that young conscripts had been sent into battle and some taken prisoner. The admission, notable in itself given Russia’s careful attempts to control the narrative about the war, came just a day after President Vladimir Putin assured his nation in a video address that conscripts “are not participating and will not participate” in the conflict. The backtracking prompted some to question whether the Russian leader lied in his statement or was simply provided inaccurate information.
“This incident reveals some of the unrealistic expectations Putin had when starting this military operation,” said Tatyana Stanovaya, the founder of R.Politik.
“It looks likely that Putin genuinely thought Russia would be able to take Ukraine by storm and instructed his military not to use conscripts. But this is just one of the many aspects that have turned out differently in reality.”
Two weeks into the war, it has become evident that the Russian army has failed in its initial plan to quickly seize major cities – including the capital, Kyiv, and Kharkiv in north-eastern Ukraine. The attack on Odesa, a crucial port city in the south, has also stalled, and Russian land advances have been thwarted repeatedly.
More than a week ago, Russia admitted that almost 500 of its soldiers had been killed, a figure that has not since been updated, while US officials estimate that between 5,000 and 6,000 Russian troops have died.
“The current problems should be traced back to the inception of this war, which was conducted in high secrecy to avoid any leaks,” said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The Kremlin’s disastrous move to invade was rooted in giant lapses of expertise about Ukraine,” said Gabuev, who added that officials close to Putin who helped plan the invasion sincerely believed that many Ukrainians would welcome Russian soldiers, and that the country’s leadership would offer little resistance.
“Only a very small group of generals were informed about the war, and they didn’t ask difficult questions that could help prepare for any scenarios other than a speedy Russian victory. The whole war planning was reduced to a clandestine operation developed by just a handful of people in uniform – and the president himself,” said Gabuev.”
(Today, Putin approved bringing thousands of fighters from the Middle East to fight for Russia against Ukraine. At a meeting of Russia’s Security Council, defence minister Sergei Shoigu said there were 16,000 volunteers in the Middle East who were ready to come to fight with Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine in the breakaway Donbass region. It is a measure of how badly the war is going that Putin is calling up mercenaries, in Russia and everywhere else he can get them. This includes, according to some reports, people formerly prohibited form serving in regular forces because of their criminal activity.)
Ukraine lives to fight another day, but the toll on its people is unimaginable.