Good morning, where are we today? What is happening?
Russian offensive slowing?
LVIV/IRPIN, Ukraine, March 8 (Reuters) – Russia’s offensive in Ukraine continued but at a significantly slower pace on Tuesday and a second senior Russian commander had been killed, Ukrainian military and intelligence said, as frightened residents fled bombed-out cities.
Ukraine’s military intelligence said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces killed a Russian general near the besieged city of Kharkiv, the second Russian senior commander to die in the invasion. Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, first deputy commander of Russia’s 41st army, was killed on Monday, the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine’s defence ministry said in a statement.(NB do not confuse him with Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General staff, who, as far as we know, remains with Putin.)
Russia’s defence ministry could not be immediately reached for comment and Reuters could not verify the reports. Reports of the stalled Russian advance are fairly widespread, however, and some defence analysts believe that Russia has already committed 100% of the troops it had lined up along the borders. Reports that Russia is appealing to Syrians (who are skilled in street to street fighting, apparently) to go and fight in Ukraine. Opposition to the war grows in Russia – although plenty of people are still reporting that relatives in Russia believe Putin’s version of events absolutely – and thousands of protestors have now been arrested.
Negotiations?
Reuters again, reports that negotiators have made little progress, saying that they did not have positive developments to report following talks with Ukraine. They warned not to expect the next round to bring a final result. The talks “are not easy,” Vladimir Medinsky, Russia’s presidential aide and head of the Russian delegation, said.
Ukraine’s negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak said some small progress had been made on agreeing logistics for the evacuation of civilians, but no agreement was reached that significantly improves the broader situation. This is unsurprising, given that Russia, while claiming that it can withdraw its troops “in a moment” is prepared to do so only ifUkraine meets conditions that will be completely unacceptable to its government and its people.
Interviewed by Reuters, the Kremlin spokesman said on Monday that Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt military operations “in a moment” if Kyiv meets a list of conditions.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states.
On the issue of neutrality, Peskov said: “They should make amendments to the constitution according to which Ukraine would reject any aims to enter any bloc.” Russia has long protested against any attempt by Ukraine to join either the Nato alliance or the European Union. It wants to make Ukraine’s neutrality a condition of any peace deal. However, Volodymyr Zelensky, addressing members of the European Parliament earlier this month, is pushing for Ukraine to become a member of the EU. This is now a problematic issue, since the EU has now agreed on principle that Ukraine can apply for membership!
Peskov’s statement was the most explicit Russian statement so far of the terms it wants to impose on Ukraine to halt what it calls its “special military operation”, now in its 12th day. He told Reuters in a telephone interview that Ukraine was aware of the conditions. “And they were told that all this can be stopped in a moment.” There was, Reuters reports, no immediate reaction from the Ukrainian side.
Russia has attacked Ukraine from the north, east and south, pounding cities including Kyiv, Kharkiv and the port of Mariupol. The invasion launched on Feb. 24, has caused the worst refugee crisis in Europe since World War Two, provoked outrage across the world, and led to heavy sanctions on Moscow. But the Kremlin spokesman insisted Russia was not seeking to make any further territorial claims on Ukraine and said it was “not true” that it was demanding Kyiv be handed over.
“We really are finishing the demilitarisation of Ukraine. We will finish it. But the main thing is that Ukraine ceases its military action. They should stop their military action and then no one will shoot,” he said.
“This is not us seizing Lugansk and Donetsk from Ukraine. Donetsk and Lugansk don’t want to be part of Ukraine. But it doesn’t mean they should be destroyed as a result,” Peskov said. “For the rest. Ukraine is an independent state that will live as it wants, but under conditions of neutrality.” He added that all the demands have been formulated and handed over during the first two rounds of talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations, which took place last week.
What’s the Russian narrative?
Russia had been forced into taking decisive actions to force the demilitarisation of Ukraine, Peskov said, rather than just recognising the independence of the breakaway regions.
This was in order to protect the 3 million Russian-speaking population in these republics, who he said were being threatened by 100,000 Ukrainian troops.
“We couldn’t just recognise them. What were we going to do with the 100,000 army that was standing at the border of Donetsk and Lugansk that could attack at any moment. They were being brought U.S. and British weapons all the time,” he said.
In the run-up to the Russian invasion, Ukraine repeatedly and emphatically denied Moscow’s assertions that it was about to mount an offensive to take back the separatist regions by force. Peskov said the situation in Ukraine had posed a much greater threat to Russia’s security than it had in 2014, when Russia had also amassed 150,000 troops at its border with Ukraine, prompting fears of a Russian invasion, but had limited its action to the annexation of Crimea.
Peskov said Russia had also had to act in the face of the threat it perceived from NATO, saying it was “only a matter of time” before the alliance placed missiles in Ukraine as it had in Poland and Romania.
Russia’s demands appear to be outrageous. Has it made any concessions that would lead an observer to think that it is recognising the war is not going well for it?
Ukraine has suffered terrible losses, with Russia targeting its densely populated urban areas. But only Kherson, of the major Ukraine cities, has fallen and in a country larger than France, Russia has made few inroads. The government in Kyiv is still standing and Russia has failed to achieve air superiority. Ukraine will therefore be dismissive of a ceasefire with the preconditions dictated by Russia.
Anatol Lieven, (left-leaning) senior fellow with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and a visiting professor at the war studies department at King’s College London, questioned what Mr Peskov actually meant by the “demilitarisation” of Ukraine. Quoted in the (right-wing) Telegraph, he said “If it means the abolition of the Ukrainian armed forces, then, of course, that’s completely unacceptable.” But if it meant the withdrawal of long-range missiles from its soil, similar to the agreement that brought the Cuban missile crisis to an end, then a deal, said Professor Lieven, might be doable.
The Telegraph’s report indicates that it believes Russia is making concessions:
“This appears to be a concession. In the days before the war, Putin had dismissed Ukraine as a Bolshevik creation. Now the Kremlin appears to be recognising Ukraine’s right to exist, but refusing its right to make treaties.
Shashank Joshi, a former senior research fellow at the think tank RUSI and now defence editor at the Economist, said: “So two weeks in, Russia has unilaterally moved down to: the Nazis can stay if they say no to Nato and hand over territory.” He added: “Were Ukraine to agree to such terms (not impossible), it would also have bad implications for other EU or Nato aspirants.”
Prof Lieven told Democracy Now a treaty of neutrality was not out of reach, pointing out Austria and Finland had stayed neutral during the Cold War – even though they were “in effect part of the West”.
Mr Zelensky and the West have refused to recognise Russia’s annexation. But the reality is Russia will not hand back Crimea and Ukraine is never going to win it back in a war. This could well be a sticking point in any deal, but the West may wish to push Mr Zelensky into a deal to bring hostilities to a halt. Prof Lieven suggested the thorny issue could somehow be “shelved”.
Russia had accused Ukraine of “genocide”, largely over claims Kyiv was blocking water supply to the peninsula. If Moscow and Kyiv could come to some deal on Crimea – without Ukraine having to recognise it as a Russian territory – then perhaps Russia could argue it had secured Crimea’s survival and justify the invasion, thus saving face.
Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist with the RAND Corporation, a US defence think tank, said on Twitter it was “hard to see” how President Zelensky could agree to the recognition of Donetsk and Luhansk:
What about President Zelensky?
The Kremlin’s battle plan in the first days of the war had been to capture Hostomel airport close to Kyiv, land a crack team of special forces troops, drive to the capital, grab the president and, metaphorically at least, “decapitate” him. But 12 days on, Mr Zelensky remains a hero of the Ukrainian people and now of the world.
In his Reuters interview, Mr Peskov made no mention of Russia’s demands for Mr Zelensky. However Christo Grozev – executive director of Bellingcat, an investigative journalism group that has exposed Russian wrongdoing for several years – said he believed that the Kremlin was now willing to accept Mr Zelensky as president, provided that Yuriy Boiko, a senior politician more sympathetic to Russia, is appointed as prime minister. It had previously been reported that Yanukovich, former pro-Russian president of Ukraine, was waiting in the wings in Minsk: whether his candidacy as puppet president is still alive is uncertain.
(Yanukovych was elected president in 2010, defeating Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. The election was judged free and fair by international observers. November 2013 saw the beginning of a series of events that led to his ousting as president. Yanukovych rejected a pending EU association agreement, choosing instead to pursue a Russian loan bailout and closer ties with Russia. This led to protests and the occupation of Kyiv’s Independence Square, a series of events dubbed the “Euromaidan” by proponents of aligning Ukraine toward the European Union. In January 2014, this developed into deadly clashes in Independence Square and in other areas across Ukraine, as Ukrainian citizens confronted the Berkut and other special police units. In February 2014, Ukraine appeared to be on the brink of civil war, as violent clashes between protesters and special police forces led to many deaths and injuries. On 21 February 2014, Yanukovych claimed that, after lengthy discussions, he had reached an agreement with the opposition. Later that day, however, he left the capital for Kharkiv, saying his car was shot at as he left Kyiv, and travelling next to Crimea, and eventually to exile in southern Russia.)
A fourth round of negotiations will take place very soon, Russia said. The Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers are expected to meet in Turkey on Thursday.
What further sanctions are being suggested?
The US is considering a ban on imports of Russian oil to further cripple the Russian economy: the EU would be massively affected by this as it is more dependent. In return, Russia has threatened to cut off gas supplies to Europe.
Humanitarian corridors?
There are efforts to put more in place today, but Ukraine has claimed that there are attempts to disrupt them, according to the Guardian: “The Ukrainian deputy prime minister has warned that although the first stage of Sumy’s evacuation has begun, Russia is “preparing to disrupt” them.
The Centre for Strategic Communications and Information Security in Ukraine said although the Russian defence ministry has officially agreed to the humanitarian corridor, Irina Vereshchuk has warned: “The Russian side is preparing to disrupt the work of humanitarian corridors and manipulate the route to force people to go the other way.”
Russia has attempted to force people to evacuate to Russia itself or to Belarus, where, unsurprisingly, none of them want to go.
What more today?
“Volodymyr Zelenskiy will address British MPs by videolink today, marking the first time a president of another country has addressed the House of Commons.
The Ukrainian president has pleaded with numerous western leaders in the last week, requesting supplies and military support.
The address will take place at 5pm GMT, reports Reuters.
“Every parliamentarian wants to hear directly from the president, who will be speaking to us live from Ukraine, so this is an important opportunity for the House,” said speaker Lindsay Hoyle.”
Let’s hope he has plenty to say to Johnson . . .